Finally, on the security front, the U.S. president should pay careful attention to NATO, which will celebrate its 60th anniversary next year. “NATO is the U.S.’s institutional link to Europe. For all of its downsides, it’s the most successful security alliance in the world. We need a new strategic concept with NATO for the 21st century. We now have an outmoded strategic concept,” Kempe said. The continuing war in Afghanistan is, and will remain, a serious burden for both the United States and NATO. Despite some progress under President Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan still accounts for more than 90 percent of the world’s opium production, and the illicit drug industry in that nation makes up some 40 percent of Afghanistan’s $8 billion economy. Kempe conceded that the relief and reconstruction work now under way in Afghanistan is confused and disjointed. About 60 countries are working inside Afghanistan, including 37 that are providing troops, but progress has stalled and the security situation has deteriorated. “Afghanistan is going wrong and we’re standing by and watching it. The trend lines are not positive. And it’s not NATO’s fault, but NATO will get blamed. There are senior military leaders who believe that at this time next year, Afghanistan will be a larger problem than Iraq,” Kempe said. “I don’t think Afghanistan is an existential test for NATO, but it is an existential test for the Western community. NATO is responsible for the military part of this, but the military part will not solve the problems of Afghanistan,” he added. Most experts agree that the transatlantic alliance went through a difficult period during the final years of the Clinton administration, and it has been in a state of near crisis during the last seven years under President George W. Bush. Kempe cited deep skepticism among Europeans of President Bush after his breezy dismissal of the Kyoto Protocol, his rejection of multilateral diplomacy on Iraq, and his Texas swagger that’s often dismissive about the virtues of diplomacy in general. But Kempe contends that the Bush criticism has served, in part, as a distraction from Europe’s own foreign policy failings and the lack of progress in reaching unified EU positions over the past seven years. Kempe argues that Europeans continue to spend too little to defend themselves or project security elsewhere, and they haven’t addressed their most serious challenges, which range from Islamist extremism to Russia’s combative and assertive energy policy. Europeans, however, are clearly hopeful that the next U.S. president will launch a new conversation with European leaders on how to renew and reshape the Atlantic alliance. Kempe believes this optimism for the future is mostly positive, but he fears that European expectations could become too high and that long-standing tensions could easily resurface between the United States and Europe. “The new administration will face the same Europe that has difficulty reaching decisions and the same Europe that can’t spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense,” he charged. “There is a possibility of a short honeymoon period and then new difficulty because we tend to see the world differently.” To that end, Kempe wants the Atlantic Council to help bridge the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean and play a role in revitalizing this historic alliance. Created nearly half a century ago and newly energized under Kempe’s leadership, the Atlantic Council promotes U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the global challenges of the 21st century. The council boasts an impressive roster of world leaders and experts who participate in nonpartisan and cross-national discussions and studies. These programs range from public events and off-the-record briefings to working groups and research reports with international political, military and business leaders, as well as educational and exchange programs for future leaders. (See April 28, 2008, news column of the Diplomatic Pouch to read about the 2008 Atlantic Council Awards Dinner featuring honorees such as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and News Corp. chief Rupert Murdoch.) The message behind all of the council’s work is that the transatlantic alliance is no longer as simple as U.S.-Western European relations. Rather, the U.S.-European partnership has a central part to play in conflicts from Iraq and Afghanistan to issues such as climate change and global financial markets. That worldview has resulted in significant policy expansions at the council, including an Asia program to focus on issues such as North Korea and Cross-Straits dialogue between China and Taiwan, as well as an energy and environment program to examine energy security and global warming — all with an eye on how Europe and the United States can overcome differences and address these challenges together. “We’re trying to create the ideas around the most critical issues and we’re trying to create the networks that can deal with these ideas and issues,” Kempe said. “If you want a more engaged U.S. working multilaterally, it has to start with Europe. If you don’t get that alliance right, other things won’t work.” John Shaw is a contributing writer for The Washington Diplomat.

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