International Affairs / Russia Medvedev vs. Putin: Who’s Ruling Russia? by Seth McLaughlin When President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev meet July 6 to 8 in Moscow to discuss a new nuclear pact, Americans will get another glimpse at the third post-Soviet leader — a man who largely remains a mystery following his meteoric rise to power last year. The mystery surrounding the man is fed in large part by the fact that he has lived under the shadow of his mentor and predecessor, Vladimir Putin, who in turn single-handedly brought Medvedev out of the shadows. Without Putin’s endorsement, Medvedev would not be president. And by some accounts, Medvedev is merely a placeholder, having agreed to serve a single four-year term so that Putin — now prime minister — can return to the stage in 2012 to reclaim his old job. Putin remains the country’s most popular politician, credited by some with pulling the country out of financial turmoil on the back of oil revenue windfalls. His larger-than-life persona is starkly different than that of Medvedev. He’s a tough-talking veteran of the KGB, Judo black belt and bare-chested fisherman. Medvedev, on the other hand, is three inches shorter — at 5 foot 4 inches — than Putin. He’s a bookish technocrat and former law professor who had never before held elective office. The dueling images and the duel leadership scenario have left many open questions as to who exactly is in charge: Is Medvedev only a change in style, not substance? Is he an apparatchik or ambitious young leader? Does he have enough political clout to change the course of Russia after Putin spent eight years consolidating control over government, business and the news media? Can a product of the system, change the system? Some recent evidence suggests Medvedev is slowly separating himself from Putin and the so-called silovik wing of the Kremlin — the influential group of secret service and military officials grouped around Putin. So far, Medvedev has given an interview with a fiercely anti-Kremlin newspaper and met with liberal and human rights leaders whom Putin once described as “scavenging jackals.” He’s vowed to improve relations with the United States, push democratic reforms, reform the courts and fight corruption. (Putin and others made a similar anti-corruption pledge only to see it increase under his eight-year presidency.) Despite the moves, some political observers don’t believe Medvedev is running the show. “Medvedev demonstrates that his power is still very circumspect,” said Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation. “Putin is still calling the shots. On the rhetorical level ... [Medvedev] indicates he has a position of his own, but it does not translate into practice.” Others are less pessimistic, saying it is nearly impossible to decipher whether the men are working in tandem or who calls the shots in certain circumstances. And — at least when it comes to the economic downturn — some suggest Medvedev has not been given enough credit for his opposition to state intervention and vocal support of economic reforms aimed at increasing foreign investment. Indeed, one of the starkest differences between the two presidencies has been the economy, with Russia under Putin coasting along on record-high oil prices, while Medvedev confronts a tanking economy that’s overly dependent on energy reserves. (Russia’s economy shrunk by 9.5 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2009, while its industrial output plummeted by nearly 15 percent.) Jeffrey Mankoff of the Council on Foreign Relations suggests that Medvedev’s approach to tackling the economic crisis is fueling a growing rift between the military and security officials grouped around Putin and the economic liberals aligned with Medvedev. “Liberal economists have largely stayed in power; people from the state sector and security services around Putin ... their hold has diminished I think,” Mankoff said. “The main dispute seems to be over how to use the state’s massive foreign reserve holdings. People around Putin have been pushing to use the money to bail out uncompetitive but politically connected industries and to take advantage of many private firms’ difficulties to effectively nationalize them,” Mankoff explained, comparing the maneuver to a kind of debt-for-equity swap. “The liberals around Medvedev have been keener to not blow a hole in the state budget and to not bail out companies that cannot survive without state aid, though they do not always agree among themselves,” Mankoff added, noting that finance minister Alexei Kudrin is the chief budget hawk in the group, while economic advisor Arkady Dvorkovich and economic development minister Elvira Nabiullina favor some limited fiscal assistance. Medvedev himself has taken a fairly frank approach to the financial crisis, admitting it will be “long running and very resistant,” while at the same time trying to assure investors that the Russian economy will rebound faster than expected. Heavy Metal, Heavier Studies Medvedev was born in 1965 in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg). He is the only child of two university professors — his father was a physicist who taught at a polytechnic institute and his mother taught Russian language and literature. (In 1952, Putin was also born in Leningrad. However, he is the son of an ex-serviceman of the Soviet Navy and a factory worker.) In a pre-election profile by Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Medvedev’s first teacher said, “He always tried very hard” and devoted “all his time to his studies. One very rarely saw him playing with other boys, running with a ball. He looked like a small, serious old man.” Medvedev has an affinity for heavy-metal bands such as Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath, Pink Floyd and Deep Purple. He married his high school sweetheart and has one son. And following in the footsteps of his parents, he became a professor. In 1982, he enrolled in Leningrad State University and graduated in 1987. While there, Medvedev participated in the local Komsomol (Communist Youth) and met Anatoly Sobchak, a professor who would become Saint Petersburg’s first democratically elected mayor. In 1989, Medvedev worked on Sobchak’s successful campaign and in 1991 he accepted a job in his administration. That’s when he first met Putin, whom Sobchak had hired to run the city’s external-affairs committee. Putin would become a father figure and Medvedev his trusted protégé. “Several times we briefed Putin together on various legal issues, and I noticed that Putin regarded Medvedev’s recommendations with respect,” Valery Musin, Medvedev’s former academic adviser and law professor at Leningrad State University, told the St. Petersburg Times last year. “Medvedev may seem soft and pliable as a team member, but he is quite rigid on the things that he believes are right.” Medvedev also pursued business interests. In 1992, he created Fintsell, which later founded Ilim Pulp Enterprises, Russia’s largest timber and pulp company. Following Sobchak’s failed bid in the 1996 mayoral race, Putin went to Moscow while Medvedev stayed behind to lecture and continue with his business interests. But that did not last long. President Boris Yeltsin, celebrated for his democratic reforms but criticized for scandals and corruption, appointed Putin prime minister and went on to name him his preferred successor — with some speculating a deal had been cut to keep Yeltsin out of jail. Next Page